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Syracuse v. Virginia 12/2/23 Game Thread

Jim Stechschulte

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Feb 3, 2023
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Wes and I were texting during the second half of the game. At one point, he asked me a yes/no question and I answered with a bunch of stuff that didn't answer the question. Anyway, he wanted me to share those thoughts with everyone. So, I tried to clean it up for easier consumption...


Virginia is going to make any team without established systems on both ends look bad. The Cavs don’t panic when the shot clock gets low, they just keep going. SU's man defense is inexperienced and choppy with the potential to eventually get better. The defense is not good enough to stay with a team as disciplined as Virginia, as the longer the possession lasts, the more likely they are to make a mistake, whether not rotating, failing to communicate with teammates, or something else..

SU just ran motion on offense with the center occasionally coming up near the top of the key to screen. That led to guys who shouldn’t really be handling the ball doing so, only against a team looking to stop them, not just one man. They might have committed more traveling infractions today than they have in the first seven games, many of them resulting from double teams. In comparison to how Virginia operates, there was a possession where Bell picked up his dribble and panicked in just over a second, then forced a bad shot with somewhere around 15 on the shot clock.

These are virtually exact opposite programs. The zone at least gave SU the chance to hang around against the Cavaliers because they were normally proficient at it in the sense where guys at least knew what they were supposed to do.

I think the LSU game provided the fan base (and possibly the team) with some false hope. LSU lost that game more than SU won it when they couldn’t get offensive boards in the second half. Once they lost those additional opportunities, the Tigers couldn't overcome their sloppiness (19 turnovers) and inability to buy a 3 (2-of-22 in the game).

Also, it has been fun to watch this team get blown out three times in five games after they had the “team doesn’t quit” storyline trotted out after the comeback against Colgate.

After that transition miss by Starling on a 3-on-1 in the second half, I would suggest that both guards look for their own shot too much. It trickles down through the roster. Bell and Taylor both has possessions late where they shot as soon as they got a touch. Taylor was at least coming off a screen and had a reasonable look. Bell's left his hand so fast while pretty tightly guarded, it seemed like he had decided to shoot the next time he touched the ball, regardless of circumstances.

Copeland was over his skis against Virginia last year and didn’t look much better today. His style of play is too loose/out of control against their defense and his creativity is not meshed with his teammates.

Taylor’s confidence is not there. The quick hits reaction to the game gets into more of this, but it boils down to him opting to shot fake when he gets the ball when he is "open enough". He opts for a shot fake, then dribbles in once or twice and passes to keep the offense moving. He's a good enough shooter that he should confidently take these open looks where he is established on his spot and waiting for the pass.


The question Wes asked me to start all this was, "Is Autry in over his head?"

This roster does not allow him to simultaneously plan a rotation and coach to win against similarly or better talented opponents. Guys make egregious enough mistakes where he needs to be able to give them the hook, but he doesn't really do that in the first half when they're on more scheduled substitutions. However, there are a lot of players whose contribution is a complete surprise - what they will do, when they will get hot, defensive effort, and so on. They’re a bunch of incomplete, inconsistent players assembled into a team that does not have one single thing Autry can count on and use as a building block.

I would like to see a shake up of the lineup and start the five guys who have the most consistent play. To me, that five would be Mintz, Taylor, Brown, McLeod, and one other player, but I have no clue who the last guy should be. Starling's game is very redundant with Mintz's. You never know how Bell will shoot, what Williams will do on offense/what his effort level will be, if Copeland is going to be under control on offense, and so on. You might be able to make the best case for Cuffe as far as “know what he’s going to bring”.

So, to answer that question… maybe, but we won’t know this year.
 
I agree with your analysis that both Starling and Mintz have games that are extremely similar. Starling has looked bad in all 8 games. He wasn't a great scorer at Notre Dame but he was a very interesting player defensively, and this year it actually looks like he's gotta a little bit better. His DRTG sits at 98.7 which is decent for a guard of his size. On the other hand, he looks way worse on offense he has a FG% of 38.6% and a 3P% of 5.6% (1/18). You put it perfect that their games are redundant and that they look for their shoot too much, that last part is spot on. It does not look like they play off each other at all, but they run a million DHOs 3 feet off the perimeter and that just did not work against VA.

Cuffe should be a little higher up in the rotation, he looks pretty consistent and as you said you know what you are getting with. As for Bell and Taylor, I think if you're gonna have them in, especially at the same time, you need to actively generate looks for them because they do not move that much off ball (possibly due to Mintz and Starling's ball dominant play). They need catch and shoot looks to be effective. I like both of them as shooters, they have nice strokes, but they need to be utilized properly. But the comment that Taylor pump fakes open shots is 110% true and is very costly.

McLeod needs to be bumped out for Brown. Brown just looks very aware and more mobile, that it would open up a lot of interesting possibilities in the half-court.

Right SU is 120th in 3 point attempts per game and are 236th in 3 point percentage. I think this purely reflective of just bad they are at generating open looks, it feels like a lot of their threes are not purposefully manufactured but just the result of a broken play.
 
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McLeod needs to be bumped out for Brown. Brown just looks very aware and more mobile, that it would open up a lot of interesting possibilities in the half-court.

Right SU is 120th in 3 point attempts per game and are 236th in 3 point percentage. I think this purely reflective of just bad they are at generating open looks, it feels like a lot of their threes are not purposefully manufactured but just the result of a broken play.

Just to address these last two parts, I think Autry should be willing to play McLeod and Brown together. The team is -40 rebounding on the season against D-I opponents (removing Chaminade) and ranked 329th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage (including Chaminade). Getting another rebounder on the floor for some minutes could help against Power 6 opponents.

Brown averages 20 minutes a game. There is no reason not to play him closer to 30. McLeod plays 18 and could easily get up to around 25 while still getting him rest. They could play them more to lean in on defense to help offset the struggling offense.

Their four-out offense tanks their offensive rebounding. I know playing Brown and McLeod together further limits their perimeter shooting, but do it when one of the starting guards is on the bench for Cuffe/play Taylor at the 2 for more shooting, then utilize Brown as a screener for the shooters or around the foul line to gain his passing ability.

There are virtually no screens on offense. They don't do anything to get anyone open other than a guard drives and the opponent collapses, creating those corner/break looks. I also wonder if playing Taylor at the four so much is leading to him getting gassed and sapping his ability to shoot from the perimeter.

When it is all added up, I would say a real concern about Autry thus far is a lack of offensive creativity and overall flexibility. There is an overall feeling that the team is built around a specific way to play the coaches think should work, so they stick with that. And... it's not working.
 
To echo many of your points:

  • JJ and Mintz are not a good pairing in the backcourt.
  • Cuffe needs to play more.
  • I like the idea of a McLeod/Brown lineup if it helps with rebounding.
  • We have to get Justin going. He's suffering from a confidence problem right now.
  • We need an offensive identity. The one-on-one with a contested shot offense is going to result in more games like this.
 
Just to address these last two parts, I think Autry should be willing to play McLeod and Brown together. The team is -40 rebounding on the season against D-I opponents (removing Chaminade) and ranked 329th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage (including Chaminade). Getting another rebounder on the floor for some minutes could help against Power 6 opponents.

Brown averages 20 minutes a game. There is no reason not to play him closer to 30. McLeod plays 18 and could easily get up to around 25 while still getting him rest. They could play them more to lean in on defense to help offset the struggling offense.

Their four-out offense tanks their offensive rebounding. I know playing Brown and McLeod together further limits their perimeter shooting, but do it when one of the starting guards is on the bench for Cuffe/play Taylor at the 2 for more shooting, then utilize Brown as a screener for the shooters or around the foul line to gain his passing ability.

There are virtually no screens on offense. They don't do anything to get anyone open other than a guard drives and the opponent collapses, creating those corner/break looks. I also wonder if playing Taylor at the four so much is leading to him getting gassed and sapping his ability to shoot from the perimeter.

When it is all added up, I would say a real concern about Autry thus far is a lack of offensive creativity and overall flexibility. There is an overall feeling that the team is built around a specific way to play the coaches think should work, so they stick with that. And... it's not working.
There definitely is a lack of creativity with the offense, every play is the same. Just a bunch of DHOs and and getting stuck in the mid-range.
 
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