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Basketball Thoughts

Jim Stechschulte

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Staff
Feb 3, 2023
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I wanted to add some thoughts from having been at both basketball exhibition games that I do not feel comfortable putting in my season preview.

I don't have a whole lot of expectation that Mintz's 3-point shot will be appreciably better this season. The rotation on his release looks the same as it was last season, around a 30-degree rotation to the right on the backspin (seven o'clock to one o'clock) instead of being "straight". He'll still be very good, along with Starling. Having a backcourt where both players rely on driving to score to propel the offense is concerning. Autry's stated desire to go faster is basically saying "we need easy points to bolster our halfcourt offense".

Williams being suspended for an exhibition game for a violation of team rules while a team captain is... a decision (him, not the coaches). His lack of bulk is already concerning, especially against this season's schedule. Taylor has a much bigger upper body and the staff is talking about playing him down in the lineup at the two while Williams weighs substantially less and is three inches taller. Brown's size and dependability are going to be very important. He was a better rebounder than Williams last season (rate) and may be needed in tandem with Hima to protect the glass.

Taylor's rebounding against St Rose underscores why I like him to start over Bell at the three. He showed more willingness to do something outside of his comfort zone in that game than Bell has shown to this point. I also like his discretion in taking 3's and ability to get a couple bounces to a mid-range shot or at least evade a closeout and keep the offense moving. Teams know this is a limited 3-point shooting team and should be guarding Bell and Taylor tightly. Taylor is capable of doing more things than Bell and I really hope he starts this season.

It seems Bell is a guy who likes making highlight plays (threes, transition dunks, weak side blocks) and actively seeks out those opportunities while being less interested in the less glamorous parts of the game.

I would not be surprised if no one other than Mintz or Starling averages over 26 minutes a game. Those two look ticketed for 34-36 apiece. Everyone else basically has a partner at their position where Autry should lean on playing whomever is playing best at that time than anything else. Taylor/Bell, Williams/Brown, McLeod/Hima(/Brown). Copeland will fit in around the edges of 1-2-3 and I figure there will be some games where Cuffe gets a look, but he is likely to slide out of the rotation, leaving Copeland as the primary backup guard. I suspect the desire to keep McLeod fresh will keep his minutes in check, topping him out around 24 a game.

The most difficult part of Autry's season is going to be keeping guys together when their minutes yo-yo around based on their play between games. They seem to genuinely like each other, which should help, but we'll see what happens if things go sideways.
 
Tonight's game showed me that there's going to be some real concern around the 3-point shooting all season.

I liked how Autry wasn't afraid to tinker with lineups. That 4-guard lineup with Mintz playing the bottom of the zone was interesting to watch. I can't imagine they'd do that against ACC teams.

I wonder how long Benny is out for. I'm just not impressed with Bell. He needs to come off the bench until he can prove he's more active on defense and rebounding.
 
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